Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
